Oil Price at $103 Meets a Bearish Brent Pattern, Is a Ceasefire Being Priced In?

Brent crude futures are trading near $103 at press time after surging more than 40% over the past month, driven by the Iran-US conflict, Strait of Hormuz disruptions, and Iraqi force majeure declarations that collectively removed millions of barrels from global supply. However, the rally’s intensity has faded over the past week, with Brent slipping roughly 2.84%. A closer look at the 4-hour chart reveals a pattern that suggests the market may already be pricing in the possibility that this conflict does not last. But then, it is just a possibility as one headline can change everything within hours. Head and Shoulders Forms as RSI Weakens The Brent crude futures 4-hour chart on ICE Europe shows a head and shoulders pattern taking shape. This is a bearish pattern on the shorter time frame. Between March 12 and March 27, the oil price is forming a higher high while the Relative Strength Index (RSI), a momentum oscillator, is forming a lower high. That bearish divergence suggests momentum is weakening even as the price holds elevated levels. The divergence confirmation is pending. If the next 4-hour candle closes below the current candle’s high, it would confirm a swing high and validate the RSI structure. Above $104.37, the divergence gets invalidated for now. Brent RSI Bearish Divergence: TradingView In a market driven by geopolitical risk premium, weakening momentum on the 4-hour chart could reflect traders beginning to hedge against a de-escalation scenario. BREAKING: Iran has officially rejected the US' peace proposal and sets five conditions for an end to the war.Iran's conditions include:1. Immediate end to attacks and assassinations on Iran2. Establishment of "concrete guarantees" against future US attacks 3. "Clear…— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) March 25, 2026 Iran rejected direct US talks on Wednesday, but futures markets tend to price in outcomes before headlines confirm them. Backwardation Holds, but the Dollar Adds Pressure on Brent Crude The sp...