Why I’m bullish when my $49k Bitcoin prediction is playing out as BTC closes in on major BUY ZONE

Bitcoin has a way of turning numbers into memories. You remember the first time it ripped through a round number, $10k, $20k, $100k, you remember the mood shift when it stops rewarding optimism, you remember the quiet weeks when every bounce feels like a trap, and the loud ones when it feels like the floor has vanished. This cycle’s defining memory is going to be $126,000. That is the high I anchored on, the moment the tape stopped behaving like an uptrend and looked more like a distribution. I laid that case in October when I wrote that the bear market cycle had started at $126k, and the market has been doing what it often does after a cycle peak, it bleeds confidence first, then it bleeds price. Related Reading Time is up: The case for why Bitcoin bear market cycle started at $126k Market top signal reached: This time last cycle Bitcoin entered a bear market. Oct 16, 2025 · Liam 'Akiba' Wright As I write this, Bitcoin is down roughly 51% from that cycle high. On the chart, the current drawdown looks familiar enough to make you uncomfortable. I went back through the prior major cycles and pulled every roughly 50% drop from an all time high, then I looked at what happened next. The shape is never identical, the drivers change, the plumbing changes, the participants change, yet the human pattern repeats, denial, bargain bounces, then the moment people stop asking “is it over” and start asking “how low can it go.” In 2018, after Bitcoin was already down around 50% from the peak, it fell another roughly 70% before the true cycle bottom was in. In 2022, the next leg down after a 50% drawdown was smaller, closer to 50%. If you take that diminishing severity at face value, the next “after 50” leg this cycle could be closer to 30%, best case, and if it behaves more like the old regime, it could still be much worse. That range, another 30% to another 70% from here, is wide enough to be fairly useless on its own, but it does give us a direction. Bitcoin weekly price cycle...